How to you feel about these statements?
1) Netflix to have 30.0 million (or more) subscribers at the end of 2011. 60% Chance (as of 2011/04/23)
2) Muammar al-Gaddafi to no longer be leader of Libya before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011 62.9% Chance
3) Higgs Boson Particle to be observed on/before 31 Dec 2014. 30.0% Chance
4) NASA to announce discovery of extraterrestrial life before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011. 5.4% Chance
5) A majority government to be elected in next Canadian general election. 45.0% Chance
6) Ali Abdullah Saleh to no longer be President of Yemen before midnight ET 30 Jun 2011. 78.0% Chance
7) Ali Abdullah Saleh to no longer be President of Yemen before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011. 90.0%
As Robin Hanson would say, if you're convinced any of these estimates are wrong, why not pay yourself and fix them?